US Mid-Atlantic Region 800 Year May Precipitation Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Please cite original reference when using these data, plus the data file URL and date accessed. NAME OF DATA SET: US Mid-Atlantic Region 800 Year May Precipitation Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 1/2012 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTORS: Maxwell, R.S., A.E. Hessl, E.R. Cook, and B.M. Buckley IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2012-010 WDC PALEO CONTRIBUTION SERIES CITATION: Maxwell, R.S., et al. 2012. US Mid-Atlantic Region 800 Year May Precipitation Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2012-010. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Maxwell, R.S., A.E. Hessl, E.R. Cook, and B.M. Buckley. 2012. A multi-century reconstruction of May precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic Region using Juniperus virginiana tree rings. Journal of Climate, Early Online Release 20 September 2011. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00017.1 ABSTRACT: We present a multi-century reconstruction of May precipitation (1200 - 1997) for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States. The reconstruction is based on the first principal component (PC1) of two millennial-length Juniperus virginiana L. (eastern redcedar) tree-ring chronologies collected from rocky, limestone sites in the Ridge and Valley province of West Virginia. A split-calibration linear regression model accounted for 27% of the adjusted variance in the instrumental record and was stable through time. The model was verified by the reduction of error (RE = 0.21) and coefficient of efficiency (CE = 0.20) statistics. Multi-decadal changes in precipitation were common throughout the reconstruction, and wetter than median conditions and drier than median conditions occurred during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (1200 - 1300) and the Little Ice Age (1550 - 1650), respectively. The full reconstruction contained evidence of inter-annual and decadal variability; however, the 20th century recorded the greatest number of decadal extreme wet and dry periods. A comparison of the May precipitation reconstruction to other regional reconstructions of Potomac River, Maryland streamflow (Cook and Jacoby 1983), Virginia/North Carolina July Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI; Stahle et al. 1998), Missouri July PHDI (Cleaveland and Stahle 1994), and White River, Arkansas streamflow (Cleaveland 2000) showed that eastern US decadal drought and pluvial events extended into the Mid-Atlantic Region. A positive correlation between PC1 and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index and comparisons of smoothed May precipitation and NAO (Luterbacher et al. 1999) indicated that J. virginiana's response to May precipitation was mediated by winter temperature. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Eastern North America PERIOD OF RECORD: 1200 - 1997 AD FUNDING SOURCES: US NASA WV Space Grant Consortium, West Virginia University Eberly College of Arts and Sciences, The Explorers Club Washington D.C. Group, US National Science Foundation Doctoral Dissertation Research Grant #0925114. DATA FILE URLS: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/mid-atlantic2012precip.txt ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/mid-atlantic2012precip.xls DESCRIPTION: Reconstruction of May precipitation for AD 1200-1997 for the Mid-Atlantic Region of the United States. The reconstruction is based on two Juniperus virginiana L. (eastern redcedar) tree-ring chronologies collected in West Virginia. DATA: Column 1: Year AD Column 2: Scaled Pred May Precip (mm) Column 3: Instrumental May Precip (mm) Year ReconMayPrecip Inst.MayPrecip 1200 49.3 1201 53.6 1202 81.1 1203 67.7 1204 105.6 1205 100.7 1206 134.4 1207 98.8 1208 93.7 1209 44.7 1210 12.7 1211 44.4 1212 80.7 1213 120.7 1214 141 1215 57.7 1216 104.1 1217 79.9 1218 94.9 1219 91.4 1220 108 1221 109.4 1222 97 1223 48 1224 110.3 1225 105.9 1226 115.9 1227 71.8 1228 56 1229 78.8 1230 131.4 1231 162.9 1232 129.7 1233 94.6 1234 57.4 1235 68.3 1236 14.8 1237 78.5 1238 117.2 1239 192.8 1240 161.5 1241 191.4 1242 139 1243 101.7 1244 74.4 1245 92.5 1246 103.1 1247 91.5 1248 80.7 1249 113.5 1250 96.1 1251 74.9 1252 53 1253 38.7 1254 50.8 1255 37.6 1256 37.6 1257 46.1 1258 73.3 1259 68.7 1260 71.5 1261 83.5 1262 134.2 1263 72.9 1264 66.2 1265 113.6 1266 97.5 1267 109.4 1268 84.9 1269 80.6 1270 111.8 1271 137.7 1272 123.5 1273 45.4 1274 34.6 1275 39.9 1276 106.4 1277 105.3 1278 106.9 1279 80.4 1280 61.6 1281 69.8 1282 111.1 1283 98.5 1284 85.8 1285 73 1286 68 1287 29.2 1288 88.6 1289 87.7 1290 54.9 1291 86.8 1292 106.1 1293 170.8 1294 105 1295 50 1296 27.6 1297 85.3 1298 145.8 1299 107.5 1300 104.2 1301 81.8 1302 38 1303 71.7 1304 91.8 1305 142 1306 113.1 1307 78 1308 49.8 1309 68.3 1310 44 1311 88.7 1312 65.1 1313 97.8 1314 75.5 1315 104.1 1316 65.9 1317 48.7 1318 16.7 1319 27.5 1320 61.7 1321 108.2 1322 101.8 1323 94.3 1324 56.3 1325 43.3 1326 99.7 1327 91.8 1328 83.7 1329 91.3 1330 138.3 1331 119.1 1332 70.9 1333 80.6 1334 94.1 1335 13.5 1336 72 1337 89.4 1338 66.2 1339 102.4 1340 83.8 1341 81.5 1342 64.8 1343 67.1 1344 70.3 1345 70.1 1346 41.9 1347 89.5 1348 71.6 1349 22.6 1350 33.2 1351 45.5 1352 68.1 1353 121.6 1354 72.5 1355 97.1 1356 49.3 1357 53.8 1358 70.6 1359 85.6 1360 134.1 1361 146 1362 158.3 1363 136.5 1364 57.2 1365 58.6 1366 29.3 1367 60.6 1368 109.9 1369 81.3 1370 75.8 1371 87.1 1372 63.3 1373 86.7 1374 86.9 1375 90 1376 48.7 1377 60.8 1378 68.6 1379 143 1380 121.1 1381 129.6 1382 76.2 1383 48.9 1384 95.1 1385 114.4 1386 54.6 1387 83.2 1388 106.4 1389 44.8 1390 82.8 1391 65.6 1392 42.2 1393 92.7 1394 104.1 1395 161 1396 212.2 1397 102.2 1398 71.3 1399 89.4 1400 76.2 1401 24.2 1402 96.8 1403 87.4 1404 106.5 1405 145.3 1406 96.4 1407 73.6 1408 93 1409 77.6 1410 67.7 1411 33.8 1412 77.7 1413 98.6 1414 89.6 1415 43.9 1416 51.8 1417 122.2 1418 97.7 1419 66.3 1420 58.9 1421 33.4 1422 60.7 1423 76 1424 86.4 1425 73.4 1426 137.2 1427 83.3 1428 48.4 1429 123.8 1430 95.2 1431 65.4 1432 135.5 1433 136.6 1434 162.6 1435 160 1436 99.6 1437 218.1 1438 107.7 1439 17 1440 50.4 1441 80.3 1442 116.9 1443 156 1444 161.1 1445 92.8 1446 35.2 1447 82 1448 82 1449 119.6 1450 126 1451 52.2 1452 54.3 1453 56.5 1454 80.9 1455 147.9 1456 132 1457 120.7 1458 88.3 1459 109.3 1460 100.7 1461 95.8 1462 123.8 1463 58.3 1464 73.8 1465 86.7 1466 64.6 1467 48.2 1468 34.9 1469 55.3 1470 88.2 1471 76.8 1472 21 1473 26.2 1474 44.4 1475 98.5 1476 75.9 1477 78.2 1478 145.2 1479 152.8 1480 128.4 1481 77.2 1482 89.2 1483 63.2 1484 79.3 1485 62.6 1486 89.4 1487 112.5 1488 111.2 1489 102.7 1490 69.6 1491 69.6 1492 83.3 1493 108.1 1494 150.6 1495 105 1496 98.9 1497 68.4 1498 103.9 1499 79.3 1500 146.5 1501 66.1 1502 58.9 1503 35.9 1504 51.7 1505 39.4 1506 76.4 1507 127.9 1508 84.1 1509 90 1510 109.7 1511 109.5 1512 73.8 1513 86.1 1514 56.3 1515 79.1 1516 100.7 1517 139.1 1518 128.3 1519 90.3 1520 115.3 1521 62.3 1522 94.5 1523 72.3 1524 96.3 1525 76 1526 47.6 1527 97.7 1528 87.6 1529 104.9 1530 132.8 1531 97.5 1532 101 1533 65.1 1534 59.2 1535 48.2 1536 64.2 1537 62.7 1538 97.3 1539 104 1540 96.6 1541 81.7 1542 68.1 1543 66.4 1544 37.6 1545 36.2 1546 56.2 1547 87.9 1548 152.8 1549 133.5 1550 83.2 1551 47.8 1552 43.6 1553 81.6 1554 52.4 1555 55.2 1556 74.3 1557 117.6 1558 100.4 1559 58.6 1560 76.2 1561 109.6 1562 118.1 1563 104.8 1564 69 1565 127.1 1566 49.8 1567 85.7 1568 122.3 1569 105.2 1570 78.8 1571 54.3 1572 69.3 1573 35.1 1574 42 1575 49.1 1576 53.4 1577 96.4 1578 117.6 1579 120.4 1580 122 1581 76.7 1582 83.9 1583 82.5 1584 106.9 1585 122.3 1586 51.1 1587 20.5 1588 61.4 1589 72.3 1590 34.5 1591 44.2 1592 89 1593 142.9 1594 122.9 1595 90.5 1596 53.4 1597 22.1 1598 0.9 1599 9.4 1600 37.1 1601 61.3 1602 129.2 1603 119.6 1604 82.9 1605 68.4 1606 71.8 1607 92.1 1608 39.3 1609 28.1 1610 63 1611 105.8 1612 76.6 1613 99.6 1614 83.8 1615 71.2 1616 83.4 1617 160.2 1618 163.6 1619 158.5 1620 60.4 1621 86.9 1622 101.9 1623 65.5 1624 84.9 1625 81.7 1626 106.6 1627 120.3 1628 67.7 1629 56 1630 64.7 1631 42.2 1632 44.6 1633 25.8 1634 64.4 1635 37.3 1636 73.6 1637 142.1 1638 62.1 1639 82.6 1640 114.9 1641 110.6 1642 51.2 1643 75.5 1644 98.1 1645 47.1 1646 58.2 1647 116.9 1648 82.3 1649 78.2 1650 86.6 1651 85.1 1652 78.6 1653 81.6 1654 36.7 1655 48 1656 64.8 1657 69.7 1658 166.7 1659 161.7 1660 89.6 1661 135.8 1662 71.9 1663 44.9 1664 45.8 1665 57.3 1666 98.2 1667 114.8 1668 103.8 1669 118.3 1670 58.9 1671 122.8 1672 162 1673 163.7 1674 127.1 1675 137.1 1676 91 1677 115.9 1678 93.7 1679 63.3 1680 160.8 1681 62.3 1682 77 1683 138.2 1684 108.1 1685 71.6 1686 67.9 1687 55.4 1688 47.7 1689 102.7 1690 83.3 1691 57.7 1692 85.7 1693 65.6 1694 135.9 1695 125 1696 74.6 1697 67.6 1698 49.3 1699 74.4 1700 37.2 1701 41.7 1702 89.4 1703 59.3 1704 61.5 1705 88.4 1706 142.3 1707 76.9 1708 20.8 1709 53.9 1710 61.6 1711 99.3 1712 86.4 1713 118.3 1714 93.6 1715 109.8 1716 119.7 1717 180.8 1718 115.1 1719 72.4 1720 102.8 1721 80.4 1722 94.3 1723 76 1724 106.8 1725 128.5 1726 103.4 1727 88.7 1728 90.8 1729 144.4 1730 76.9 1731 71.5 1732 30.8 1733 58.3 1734 37.6 1735 13.5 1736 30.1 1737 56.8 1738 130.7 1739 226.4 1740 150.6 1741 49.4 1742 92.3 1743 102.9 1744 170.5 1745 96.7 1746 21.4 1747 20.8 1748 9.3 1749 39.1 1750 71.8 1751 92.1 1752 118.4 1753 151.8 1754 128.7 1755 44.5 1756 115.8 1757 50.9 1758 80.8 1759 104.3 1760 76.8 1761 49.4 1762 32.2 1763 70.1 1764 46.1 1765 38.7 1766 30.7 1767 48.5 1768 61.6 1769 95.8 1770 73.7 1771 62.3 1772 25.7 1773 46.1 1774 80.4 1775 87.2 1776 147.6 1777 117.1 1778 65 1779 56.9 1780 83.1 1781 149.3 1782 77.8 1783 116.3 1784 37.2 1785 71.9 1786 99.1 1787 77.5 1788 62.3 1789 92.8 1790 98.5 1791 78 1792 61.3 1793 152.3 1794 91.5 1795 114.2 1796 145.4 1797 37.6 1798 76.3 1799 92.1 1800 129.1 1801 125 1802 140.7 1803 54.8 1804 46.3 1805 54.3 1806 50.7 1807 111.4 1808 221 1809 138.3 1810 56.9 1811 48.8 1812 57.7 1813 66.4 1814 78.1 1815 120 1816 121.8 1817 96.3 1818 63.8 1819 59.9 1820 74.8 1821 47.4 1822 62.6 1823 80.6 1824 168.8 1825 123.4 1826 82.8 1827 148.1 1828 83.2 1829 69.3 1830 160.5 1831 113.8 1832 88.1 1833 73.1 1834 86 1835 49.2 1836 69.7 1837 125.5 1838 91.5 1839 67.3 1840 99.8 1841 112.5 1842 182.8 1843 53.3 1844 52.1 1845 66 1846 144.8 1847 99.1 1848 129.1 1849 139.6 1850 109.8 1851 147.8 1852 153.2 1853 109.3 1854 115.6 1855 29.5 1856 53.6 1857 204.6 1858 160.8 1859 100.2 1860 78.9 1861 77.1 1862 85.1 1863 61.3 1864 94.7 1865 208.2 1866 92.7 1867 101.6 1868 76.4 1869 75.9 1870 94.9 1871 70.7 1872 21.9 1873 36.2 1874 30.8 1875 64.5 1876 85 1877 111.5 1878 117.9 1879 13.3 1880 23.2 1881 41.7 1882 105.9 1883 101.1 1884 114.6 1885 36.1 1886 54.3 1887 36.7 1888 78.1 1889 139.8 1890 122.9 1891 99.3 1892 73.4 1893 57.2 1894 49.2 1895 16.8 73.4 1896 20.7 59.9 1897 149.1 108.7 1898 93 107.7 1899 88.6 87.1 1900 77.4 54.9 1901 69.8 148.3 1902 64.7 51.8 1903 110.6 50.8 1904 75.6 71.4 1905 50.7 87.1 1906 78.4 61.2 1907 107.6 71.1 1908 106.9 133.1 1909 96.7 76.7 1910 63.3 66.5 1911 19.3 17.5 1912 51.8 86.1 1913 73.4 125.2 1914 38.1 39.1 1915 59.2 61.5 1916 59.4 74.9 1917 63.8 85.1 1918 53.7 81.5 1919 72.6 109.7 1920 59.7 33.8 1921 60.6 115.8 1922 60.5 78 1923 65.3 36.1 1924 106.6 167.9 1925 59.5 59.7 1926 27.2 46.7 1927 54.3 46 1928 60.7 47.2 1929 52.7 90.4 1930 10.8 44.5 1931 81.8 130 1932 136.9 146.8 1933 161.8 134.4 1934 148.5 64.8 1935 175.5 85.3 1936 43.9 43.4 1937 72.7 63.5 1938 147.5 117.1 1939 129.6 42.9 1940 69.4 103.4 1941 18.7 47.5 1942 51.6 150.9 1943 72.2 88.1 1944 84.8 91.2 1945 98.9 87.6 1946 98.4 107.4 1947 34.9 74.4 1948 60.5 112.5 1949 66.1 99.3 1950 173.4 120.7 1951 147.3 72.6 1952 92.1 102.4 1953 145.4 116.3 1954 107.6 67.8 1955 99.7 69.1 1956 67.4 62 1957 50.2 51.3 1958 40.7 86.4 1959 55.4 77.5 1960 72.1 173 1961 103.6 65.8 1962 65.9 109.7 1963 46.4 39.1 1964 23.5 22.4 1965 25.7 38.1 1966 31.6 45.2 1967 101.7 116.6 1968 107.8 132.8 1969 31.1 33.5 1970 59.1 53.8 1971 109 149.6 1972 128.9 142.2 1973 154.3 79.5 1974 158.1 85.3 1975 102.4 117.1 1976 66.9 62.2 1977 15.2 24.4 1978 60.8 128.5 1979 128.9 113.3 1980 123.1 91.7 1981 136.6 109 1982 105 50.3 1983 106.4 109.2 1984 77.8 65.8 1985 143.5 151.9 1986 82.2 73.7 1987 68.4 82.3 1988 94.7 190 1989 143.8 165.1 1990 155.9 132.8 1991 118.8 52.8 1992 186.5 99.8 1993 118.6 42.7 1994 114.7 98 1995 122.4 97 1996 95.3 185.9 1997 142.6 51.1