New York City 472 Year PDSI Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Please cite original reference when using these data, plus the data file URL and date accessed. NAME OF DATA SET: New York City 472 Year PDSI Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 9/2012 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTORS: Pederson, N., A.R. Bell, E.R. Cook, U. Lall, N. Devineni, R. Seager, K. Eggleston, and K.J. Vranes IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2012-149 WDC PALEO CONTRIBUTION SERIES CITATION: Pederson, N., et al. 2012. New York City 472 Year PDSI Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2012-149. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Pederson, N., A.R. Bell, E.R. Cook, U. Lall, N. Devineni, R. Seager, K. Eggleston, and K.J. Vranes. In press 2013. Is an Epic Pluvial Masking the Water Insecurity of the Greater New York City Region? Journal of Climate, Early Online Release 2012 doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00723.1 ABSTRACT: Six water emergencies have occurred since 1981 for the New York City region (NYC) despite: 1) its perhumid climate, 2) substantial conservation of water since 1979 and 3) meteorological data showing little severe or extreme drought since 1970. We reconstruct 472 years of moisture availability for the NYC watershed to place these emergencies in long-term hydroclimatic context. Using nested reconstruction techniques, 32 tree-ring chronologies comprised of 12 species account for up to 66.2% of the average May-August Palmer Drought Severity Index. Verification statistics indicate good statistical skill from 1531-2003. The use of multiple tree species, including rarely-used species that can sometimes occur on mesic sites like Liriodendron tulipifera, Betula lenta and Carya spp., seems to aid reconstruction skill. Importantly, the reconstruction captures pluvial events in the instrumental record nearly as well as drought events and is significantly correlated to precipitation over much of the northeastern US. While the mid-1960s drought is a severe drought in the context of the new reconstruction, the region experienced repeated droughts of similar intensity, but greater duration during the 16th and 17th centuries. The full record reveals a trend towards more pluvial conditions since ca 1800 that is accentuated by an unprecedented, 43-year pluvial event that continues through 2011. In the context of the current pluvial, decreasing water usage, but increasing extra-urban pressures, it appears that the water supply system for the greater NYC region could be severely stressed if the current water boom shifts towards hydroclimatic regimes like the 16th and 17th centuries. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Eastern North America PERIOD OF RECORD: 1531 - 2003 AD FUNDING SOURCE: U.S. Department of Energy Global Change Education Program DATA FILE URLS: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/newyork/ny2013pdsi.txt ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/treering/reconstructions/northamerica/usa/newyork/ny2013pdsi.xls DESCRIPTION: 472 Year Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) Reconstruction for New York Climate Division 5, based on a 32-site, 12 species network of tree ring data from the New York City watershed and Hudson Valley. New York Climate Division 5: ~41.4°N, ~74.2°W DATA: Pederson et al. 2012 New York Climate Division 5 PDSI Reconstruction YEAR NYC drought - Note: instrumental data added from 2002-2011 1531 0.254 1532 -1.398 1533 -2.161 1534 -1.303 1535 0.321 1536 -2.83 1537 -2.066 1538 -0.015 1539 0.796 1540 1.941 1541 2.182 1542 1.707 1543 -1.011 1544 -4.258 1545 -2.435 1546 0.599 1547 1.266 1548 -0.016 1549 -1.769 1550 -2.468 1551 -1.357 1552 -0.95 1553 -0.516 1554 -0.3 1555 -1.209 1556 -1.578 1557 -2.475 1558 -1.64 1559 -1.074 1560 -1.011 1561 -0.951 1562 -1.657 1563 -0.878 1564 -1.551 1565 -0.701 1566 -0.452 1567 -0.942 1568 -2.389 1569 -2.303 1570 -3.035 1571 -4.053 1572 -4.743 1573 -3.852 1574 -1.682 1575 -1.563 1576 -0.679 1577 -0.821 1578 0.779 1579 1.197 1580 3.567 1581 3.071 1582 -0.022 1583 -0.058 1584 2.284 1585 1.408 1586 -0.736 1587 -0.405 1588 0.47 1589 -0.776 1590 -0.532 1591 -1.521 1592 -1.914 1593 0.835 1594 1.155 1595 -1.213 1596 -3.038 1597 -2.816 1598 -1.834 1599 -0.483 1600 -0.081 1601 -0.211 1602 0.647 1603 -1.787 1604 -1.018 1605 1.171 1606 1.745 1607 -0.356 1608 -2.364 1609 -0.337 1610 2.242 1611 1.494 1612 0.554 1613 0.448 1614 -0.156 1615 0.875 1616 1.074 1617 1.693 1618 1.027 1619 -0.318 1620 -1.172 1621 0.714 1622 1.548 1623 1.425 1624 -0.48 1625 -1.473 1626 -1.659 1627 -3.475 1628 -0.635 1629 0.758 1630 -0.871 1631 -1.602 1632 -1.55 1633 -2.025 1634 -4.32 1635 -5.594 1636 -1.796 1637 0.403 1638 -0.969 1639 -2.855 1640 -0.519 1641 1.118 1642 0.299 1643 0.736 1644 -0.494 1645 -1.845 1646 -0.244 1647 -0.649 1648 -2.213 1649 -3.579 1650 -3.371 1651 -1.261 1652 -0.129 1653 0.007 1654 0.758 1655 1.761 1656 0.959 1657 0.312 1658 2.631 1659 0.721 1660 -0.324 1661 -1.348 1662 -1.664 1663 -2.007 1664 -3.597 1665 -4.581 1666 -3.954 1667 -1.819 1668 0.317 1669 0.779 1670 -0.704 1671 -1.077 1672 0.765 1673 2.523 1674 1.445 1675 0.981 1676 0.622 1677 1.964 1678 2.044 1679 2.631 1680 1.002 1681 -1.619 1682 -0.172 1683 0.202 1684 -0.191 1685 -3.685 1686 -3.326 1687 -2.264 1688 -1.049 1689 -1.394 1690 -1.564 1691 -1.009 1692 -0.677 1693 -0.064 1694 2.621 1695 2.422 1696 0.452 1697 -1.864 1698 -3.338 1699 -3.128 1700 -1.705 1701 -0.374 1702 1.142 1703 -1.053 1704 -2.534 1705 1.909 1706 2.501 1707 -0.158 1708 -1.591 1709 -1.808 1710 -0.155 1711 0.462 1712 0.221 1713 0.234 1714 -0.385 1715 0.77 1716 0.466 1717 -0.334 1718 -0.367 1719 0.494 1720 2.01 1721 1.076 1722 -1.831 1723 -1.57 1724 0.936 1725 1.457 1726 1.291 1727 0.78 1728 0.249 1729 1.028 1730 1.459 1731 0.887 1732 -1.143 1733 -0.417 1734 -0.123 1735 -0.96 1736 -0.776 1737 -1.318 1738 -0.881 1739 0.639 1740 -1.31 1741 -2.867 1742 -2.105 1743 -1.719 1744 -0.75 1745 -0.17 1746 -0.726 1747 0.043 1748 -3.729 1749 -3.876 1750 -1.296 1751 -0.323 1752 0.88 1753 2.003 1754 3.043 1755 2.139 1756 2.187 1757 -1.326 1758 0.731 1759 0.962 1760 1.672 1761 -1.851 1762 -1.639 1763 0.493 1764 -0.979 1765 0.8 1766 0.172 1767 -1.663 1768 -0.838 1769 -2.255 1770 -3.28 1771 -2.443 1772 -3.573 1773 -2.011 1774 0.012 1775 -1.035 1776 0.169 1777 1.442 1778 -0.403 1779 0.056 1780 0.314 1781 2.128 1782 0.806 1783 -0.561 1784 -1.686 1785 -1.386 1786 -0.121 1787 1.294 1788 1.872 1789 -0.323 1790 -1.223 1791 -3.279 1792 -3.037 1793 -1.149 1794 -1.191 1795 -0.897 1796 0.191 1797 0.275 1798 -0.632 1799 -1.237 1800 -0.68 1801 0.858 1802 0.675 1803 0.056 1804 0.496 1805 -1.513 1806 -1.89 1807 0.671 1808 1.072 1809 0.722 1810 0.31 1811 0.84 1812 1.309 1813 1.441 1814 2.033 1815 1.773 1816 -0.758 1817 -0.383 1818 -2.268 1819 -3.206 1820 -3.313 1821 -1.471 1822 -1.295 1823 -1.133 1824 0.392 1825 -1.439 1826 -1.9 1827 1.852 1828 2.962 1829 1.812 1830 2.849 1831 2.203 1832 2.038 1833 4.018 1834 2.482 1835 -0.573 1836 -1.246 1837 -0.185 1838 -0.994 1839 -0.812 1840 -2.748 1841 -0.606 1842 -0.005 1843 -1.643 1844 -1.154 1845 -1.794 1846 0.655 1847 -0.176 1848 -0.594 1849 -2.768 1850 0.164 1851 0.177 1852 -1.792 1853 -0.948 1854 -0.77 1855 -1.017 1856 -1.689 1857 -0.228 1858 -0.897 1859 -0.381 1860 -1.125 1861 -0.413 1862 0.935 1863 -0.158 1864 -2.044 1865 -0.644 1866 0.03 1867 -0.216 1868 -0.4 1869 0.642 1870 -1.043 1871 -0.472 1872 -1.899 1873 -2.859 1874 0.181 1875 -1.593 1876 -2.158 1877 -0.857 1878 1.213 1879 0.622 1880 0.114 1881 0.619 1882 0.277 1883 -0.109 1884 -1.396 1885 -1.537 1886 -1.437 1887 -1.519 1888 -1.371 1889 2.635 1890 1.28 1891 0.576 1892 1.303 1893 -1.246 1894 -2.038 1895 -3.312 1896 -0.737 1897 1.976 1898 0.6 1899 -1.964 1900 -1.559 1901 1.08 1902 3.005 1903 1.238 1904 1.162 1905 0.035 1906 1.614 1907 -0.088 1908 -0.904 1909 -1.177 1910 -1.468 1911 -3.177 1912 -2.43 1913 -1.771 1914 -0.768 1915 1.119 1916 1.906 1917 0.094 1918 -1.323 1919 -0.076 1920 0.616 1921 0.623 1922 0.24 1923 -2.406 1924 -1.907 1925 -1.331 1926 -1.177 1927 0.791 1928 1.165 1929 0.537 1930 0.437 1931 1.029 1932 1.175 1933 -1.199 1934 -0.24 1935 -0.433 1936 -1.703 1937 1.246 1938 1.181 1939 -0.789 1940 -0.763 1941 -1.565 1942 -0.769 1943 -2.111 1944 -1.945 1945 0.589 1946 1.272 1947 1.543 1948 -0.61 1949 -1.344 1950 0.621 1951 2.651 1952 1.815 1953 0.059 1954 -0.694 1955 0.073 1956 -1.496 1957 -1.185 1958 -0.2 1959 -1.211 1960 -0.255 1961 0.007 1962 -2.813 1963 -2.771 1964 -5.014 1965 -5.869 1966 -3.657 1967 -1.03 1968 -0.176 1969 0.29 1970 -0.524 1971 0.213 1972 2.794 1973 2.554 1974 2.41 1975 2.287 1976 1.603 1977 -0.386 1978 -0.313 1979 -0.711 1980 -1.138 1981 -2.556 1982 -0.023 1983 -1.243 1984 0.737 1985 1.903 1986 0.821 1987 -0.26 1988 0.38 1989 3.328 1990 1.508 1991 -0.271 1992 0.747 1993 -1.169 1994 0.466 1995 -0.816 1996 -0.439 1997 -0.855 1998 0.034 1999 -1.567 2000 2.349 2001 0.708 2002 -0.598 2003 0.345 2004 2.227 2005 -0.697 2006 3.525 2007 2.883 2008 3.578 2009 3.705 2010 -1.555 2011 3.72