Eastern Oregon NOAA Climate Divisions 7 and 8 PDSI and Precipitation Reconstructions, 1705-1979 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOAA Paleoclimatology Program and World Data Center for Paleoclimatology ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE ORIGINAL REFERENCE WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Eastern Oregon NOAA Climate Divisions 7 and 8 PDSI and Precipitation Reconstructions, 1705-1979 CONTRIBUTORS: Gregg M. Garfin and Malcolm K. Hughes Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research The University of Arizona Tucson, Arizona 85721 520-621-6470 MHUGHES@LTRR.ARIZONA.EDU IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 96-029 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Garfin, G. M., and Hughes, M. K., 1996, Eastern Oregon PDSI and Precipitation Reconstructions. International Tree-Ring Data Bank. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center-A for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 96-029. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Garfin, G. M., and Hughes, M. K., 1996: Eastern Oregon Divisional Precipitation and Palmer Drought Severity Index from Tree-Rings. Report to the U.S. Forest Service Intermountain Research Station. USDA Forest Service Cooperative Agreement PNW 90-174. LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE: Approximate center of Oregon Division 7: 43°40'N 119°48'W Approximate center of Oregon Division 8: 45°00'N 118°00'W ELEVATION: Varies throughout each division GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Northwestern United States PERIOD OF RECORD: 1705-1979 VARIABLE NAMES: August Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Water Year Precipitation (Previous October-Current September) VARIABLE UNITS: PDSI = Index Values; Precipitation = mm DATA PRECISION: PDSI = 0.01; Precipitation = mm (whole numbers) DATA FORMAT: (I4,2F7.2,2I7) Column 1: YEAR Column 2: Oregon division 7 PDSI (D7PDSI) Column 3: Oregon division 8 PDSI (D8PDSI) Column 4: Oregon division 7 precipitation (D7MM) Column 5: Oregon division 8 precipitation (D8MM) DESCRIPTION: These data are reconstructed drought index and precipitation for NOAA Oregon climate divisions 7 and 8, derived from tree-ring data by Gregg M. Garfin and Dr. Malcolm K. Hughes of the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona. NOTE: These reconstructions were calibrated using drought sensitive tree-ring chronologies provided by David Meko at the Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research of the University of Arizona. The original reference for these chronologies is Meko, D., E. R. Cook, D. W. Stahle, C. W. Stockton, and M. K. Hughes. 1993. Spatial patterns of tree-growth anomalies in the United States and Southeastern Canada. Journal of Climate. 6(9):1773-1786. Observed divisional climate data were provided by the National Climatic Data Center. These data are referenced in the following publication: NCDC, 1994. Time bias corrected divisional temperature-precipitation-drought index. Documentation for dataset TD-9640. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Asheville. 12 pp. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: 1. Chronology sites. Species are coded as follows: JUOC = Juniperus occidentalis, PIJE = Pinus jeffreyi, PIPO = Pinus ponderosa, PSME = Pseudotsuga menziesii. Site Name State Altitude(m) Species Latitude Longitude 1 SPRING CANYON OR 1366 JUOC 44 54'N 118 55'W 2 CASTLE ROCKS OR 1340 PIPO 44 39'N 121 33'W 2 ROBINSON LAKE TRAIL OR 1000 PSME 44 17'N 121 58'W 3 TABLE MOUNTAIN OR 1402 PIPO 44 13'N 118 51'W 4 HORSE RIDGE OR 1146 JUOC 43 58'N 121 04'W 4 FREDRICK BUTTE OR 1494 JUOC 43 35'N 120 27'W 4 COMMITTEE CREEK OR 1486 JUOC 44 10'N 120 14'W 5 CALAMITY CREEK OR 1463 JUOC 43 59'N 118 48'W 6 LITTLE JUNIPER MOUNTAIN OR 1650 JUOC 43 08'N 119 52'W 7 STEEN'S MOUNTAIN OR 1655 JUOC 42 40'N 118 55'W 8 GRASSHOPPER TRAIL ID 1701 JUOC 42 30'N 116 48'W 9 SHARP MOUNTAIN CA 1417 JUOC 41 43'N 121 48'W 10 TIMBERED MOUNTAIN CA 1581 JUOC 41 43'N 120 45'W 11 BLACK CONE CA 2190 PIPO 41 11'N 120 07'W 11 HAGER BASIN RESERVOIR CA 1524 JUOC 41 46'N 120 45'W 11 DALTON RESERVOIR CA 1531 PIPO 41 37'N 120 42'W 12 JACKSON MOUNTAINS NV 2097 JUOC 41 18'N 118 26'W 13 LIKELY MOUNTAIN CA 1760 PIJE 41 09'N 120 34'W METHODS: Linear regression models were used to retrodict precipitation and PDSI values from combinations of tree-ring predictor variables. The following model development strategy was employed: (1) principal components analysis was used to reduce the highly correlated individual tree-ring chronologies to a set of orthogonal predictors, which included information from the maximum number of individual chronologies and were, therefore, determined to be more robust than individual tree-ring chronology predictors; (2) best subsets regression between tree-ring PC predictors and 1931-1979 divisional climate data was used to suggest likely candidate models; (3) models were evaluated based on the following criteria: coefficient of determination (R2), F-statistic, residual analysis, and parsimony; (4)the same process was applied when lagged predictors were added to the best models selected in step 3; (5) the best models were subjected to two tests of verification, i.e., cross-validation based on the PRESS R2 statistic, and correlation with long individual instrumental station and divisional climate records, (6) the most straightforward and easily interpretable models that met the aforementioned criteria were selected. Finally, the reconstructions were compared with other tree-ring reconstructions of Pacific Northwest precipitation and drought. DATA: YEAR D7PDSI D8PDSI D7MM D8MM 1705 -99.99 -99.99 333 516 1706 -2.63 -2.01 244 426 1707 3.04 -.17 315 466 1708 -4.40 -3.19 232 361 1709 .54 -2.19 295 498 1710 -.62 .67 288 374 1711 -.68 -.98 282 443 1712 .27 -1.45 304 510 1713 3.89 2.52 366 478 1714 -3.02 .78 245 454 1715 3.04 1.63 353 532 1716 3.57 4.57 372 543 1717 -6.00 -4.72 175 287 1718 -1.58 -6.90 248 440 1719 -.81 -1.96 265 460 1720 -1.11 -2.83 305 461 1721 -7.17 -4.42 180 248 1722 2.80 .05 345 512 1723 -.82 1.56 301 438 1724 -.21 .45 303 502 1725 1.64 2.16 321 492 1726 2.16 1.65 351 571 1727 4.76 5.15 412 569 1728 -3.52 -1.75 228 386 1729 -5.77 -3.50 174 234 1730 2.15 .47 351 551 1731 .41 4.34 353 566 1732 1.60 3.38 366 557 1733 -1.20 1.99 259 395 1734 1.75 -.37 315 496 1735 -3.53 -4.11 222 384 1736 -2.04 -5.27 301 422 1737 .78 1.86 338 410 1738 1.67 3.20 373 536 1739 -2.27 -2.22 235 310 1740 .51 -1.92 298 394 1741 -2.78 -4.34 235 360 1742 -.27 -2.98 292 458 1743 2.31 2.77 362 489 1744 .32 .29 291 441 1745 4.73 2.28 395 556 1746 2.66 4.80 368 487 1747 2.18 2.28 355 518 1748 -.87 -.66 271 379 1749 3.22 3.25 412 553 1750 3.15 6.98 339 502 1751 .01 .88 313 463 1752 .59 .69 334 494 1753 -1.39 -2.07 271 355 1754 -.71 -1.30 263 358 1755 1.29 1.45 337 476 1756 -3.94 -4.11 224 313 1757 -2.48 -3.72 247 375 1758 1.39 1.28 333 453 1759 -.87 .49 297 420 1760 2.11 3.83 366 458 1761 4.56 7.05 401 566 1762 -.25 .67 283 418 1763 1.13 .40 316 445 1764 -2.33 -1.16 243 382 1765 .01 -.42 319 550 1766 3.27 2.76 379 549 1767 1.06 3.20 337 399 1768 2.18 1.44 357 496 1769 2.09 1.08 326 458 1770 -2.13 .41 278 444 1771 -.14 .10 289 449 1772 1.29 .56 303 460 1773 4.66 3.93 377 565 1774 .83 .28 287 438 1775 1.74 -.19 340 479 1776 -3.24 -1.50 224 331 1777 -1.72 -3.28 243 355 1778 -1.98 -2.53 255 417 1779 1.13 -1.92 307 456 1780 2.01 1.29 345 475 1781 1.38 1.57 312 457 1782 -.13 -.72 277 372 1783 -4.60 -4.13 219 376 1784 2.57 1.21 356 455 1785 1.18 .85 333 480 1786 1.41 .99 332 451 1787 -1.70 -1.04 263 330 1788 -2.05 -1.80 258 403 1789 3.35 1.66 386 537 1790 1.49 1.30 322 494 1791 3.12 2.97 387 544 1792 1.12 3.52 345 474 1793 -4.08 -1.32 234 398 1794 -3.10 -4.62 233 373 1795 -2.25 -3.95 256 352 1796 1.13 -2.24 299 428 1797 -1.12 -4.12 257 366 1798 .41 -.33 304 472 1799 4.20 3.77 390 553 1800 -5.97 -1.93 220 416 1801 3.07 .61 349 504 1802 3.13 .89 345 528 1803 5.05 7.29 431 526 1804 -1.09 .05 268 482 1805 3.82 2.52 394 522 1806 1.42 3.83 316 433 1807 -2.61 -2.74 241 402 1808 .89 -.41 320 492 1809 4.73 4.98 418 562 1810 .98 1.51 309 439 1811 1.92 2.09 351 506 1812 1.84 4.51 335 545 1813 -.66 .61 275 448 1814 1.92 2.45 360 520 1815 -.67 -.26 286 443 1816 1.06 1.45 327 465 1817 -.85 -2.03 275 432 1818 2.76 1.94 351 477 1819 -.40 -.28 298 473 1820 -.41 -.67 301 435 1821 -1.10 -1.35 290 437 1822 -1.12 -2.20 269 440 1823 .38 -.71 308 423 1824 -1.57 -.62 289 373 1825 5.82 4.82 415 609 1826 2.83 2.69 360 544 1827 -1.00 -.48 273 378 1828 -1.73 -3.45 283 418 1829 -3.32 -.28 249 374 1830 1.75 -.51 319 450 1831 -1.99 -3.09 230 369 1832 1.66 .70 356 547 1833 -2.41 -.40 265 461 1834 -2.44 -4.87 247 418 1835 3.56 1.98 364 484 1836 1.72 1.26 319 463 1837 -1.50 .09 277 407 1838 -.41 -3.66 298 486 1839 -1.73 -2.12 275 383 1840 -2.03 -4.97 245 375 1841 -2.94 -.95 250 358 1842 .29 -.90 284 438 1843 -3.90 -3.13 220 386 1844 -1.81 -3.20 256 374 1845 1.52 1.09 345 542 1846 -2.06 -1.46 246 406 1847 -1.17 -3.25 264 351 1848 -.72 -.63 311 454 1849 -1.42 -2.51 258 412 1850 1.24 .04 313 404 1851 3.88 4.80 387 555 1852 .68 .65 302 489 1853 4.98 3.86 381 506 1854 .77 3.26 319 472 1855 1.37 1.76 357 570 1856 -1.28 .12 269 345 1857 1.39 .81 324 477 1858 -1.83 -.50 274 465 1859 -1.60 -2.47 234 382 1860 2.37 2.53 371 476 1861 4.29 4.00 405 559 1862 1.22 2.96 316 415 1863 -1.14 -2.85 267 445 1864 -.96 .94 317 418 1865 -1.47 -3.73 248 398 1866 4.49 1.03 400 538 1867 .19 -.21 284 382 1868 2.18 1.61 363 493 1869 -1.07 .63 313 441 1870 -1.60 -.82 281 468 1871 -2.01 -1.20 250 360 1872 -.85 -2.64 280 462 1873 1.34 2.04 332 468 1874 -.98 -.50 273 395 1875 1.10 2.44 333 407 1876 .81 -.55 300 467 1877 4.66 4.77 406 568 1878 2.86 2.85 356 554 1879 1.77 2.57 330 439 1880 -3.78 -3.75 214 320 1881 2.36 .42 359 525 1882 -1.09 -.94 291 479 1883 .00 -1.50 298 384 1884 3.86 2.98 402 568 1885 5.66 5.25 446 546 1886 -.63 .23 272 399 1887 -.88 -2.60 281 400 1888 -.35 -1.38 314 475 1889 -2.27 -1.48 229 323 1890 -1.54 -5.02 258 382 1891 4.10 2.11 394 527 1892 -.53 2.48 281 422 1893 -.38 -2.27 277 478 1894 6.18 5.51 425 593 1895 -2.14 .15 268 440 1896 -.05 -.22 307 463 1897 2.11 1.40 351 495 1898 .06 .78 314 402 1899 -1.00 -.45 272 395 1900 3.60 6.33 420 622 1901 1.54 1.72 337 552 1902 .63 .69 308 408 1903 -.81 .30 265 423 1904 3.62 1.02 362 585 1905 3.46 2.74 379 458 1906 1.19 4.49 339 486 1907 2.08 3.32 362 567 1908 1.79 3.84 350 502 1909 -1.40 -.58 276 405 1910 -1.03 -2.96 263 428 1911 .26 -.74 324 458 1912 .76 2.89 304 458 1913 1.77 3.27 364 627 1914 3.20 3.71 389 513 1915 .31 3.65 325 462 1916 1.11 1.84 325 487 1917 -3.39 -4.36 212 324 1918 -4.05 -4.13 223 342 1919 -.03 -2.33 290 435 1920 -1.02 -1.08 274 405 1921 4.40 3.91 411 573 1922 -2.33 -2.28 241 375 1923 1.37 2.23 352 481 1924 -5.99 -5.90 152 280 1925 2.69 -2.02 350 447 1926 -2.38 -1.32 261 394 1927 1.85 1.56 320 469 1928 .38 -1.21 288 414 1929 -3.30 -2.61 246 341 1930 -1.29 -1.62 275 427 1931 -5.28 -5.46 177 346 1932 .27 -2.63 300 409 1933 -3.73 -3.17 215 345 1934 -3.97 -2.62 237 341 1935 -.69 -2.54 296 396 1936 -1.66 -2.01 274 413 1937 -2.60 -2.23 242 376 1938 1.52 .28 345 499 1939 -2.78 -.83 255 372 1940 .27 -3.09 305 464 1941 3.30 6.08 402 550 1942 4.35 6.51 379 545 1943 3.20 2.23 370 523 1944 .31 .54 301 427 1945 .65 1.47 313 434 1946 .00 1.14 303 478 1947 -.34 .93 301 435 1948 3.27 2.54 356 474 1949 -2.29 -2.14 242 345 1950 .75 -.82 299 403 1951 1.19 -.31 316 443 1952 .12 -.22 306 454 1953 3.77 3.64 390 493 1954 1.04 3.81 312 471 1955 -3.12 -1.77 230 409 1956 3.34 2.22 357 513 1957 1.73 3.11 354 490 1958 1.54 2.19 354 541 1959 -3.03 -.14 223 398 1960 -.31 -1.26 283 486 1961 -1.13 -1.26 268 466 1962 .50 -.62 317 456 1963 3.68 3.05 381 558 1964 1.68 2.44 347 480 1965 3.48 3.81 361 494 1966 -.19 -.86 282 449 1967 1.36 .71 315 433 1968 -3.93 -1.92 231 406 1969 3.92 1.70 380 552 1970 2.12 1.83 353 480 1971 1.54 1.08 345 490 1972 -.49 -.32 295 461 1973 -2.75 -1.78 250 408 1974 .35 -1.79 296 477 1975 -.69 -.35 298 459 1976 -1.05 -1.03 287 442 1977 -.89 -.46 321 432 1978 4.95 3.60 387 578 1979 -99.99 -99.99 282 378 NOTE: missing values are indicated as -99.99